With the final numbers now in, I can report that Mission: Impossible – Fallout earned $61.23 million in North America and $94.6m overseas in its first 36 overseas territories. That represents a $155.83m global cume in North America and around 40% of its eventual overseas footprint. It has scored the biggest opening weekend of the franchise both domestically and outside of North America. The overseas figure is a whopping 23% ahead of Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation. If that continues (and that’s not remotely guaranteed), then we may be looking at a $600m overseas total for the $180m-budgeted Paramount/Viacom Inc. action sequel.
So, yes, even with an improved-but-not-superlative domestic debut (it sold fewer tickets this weekend than Rogue Nation in 2015 and the allegedly disappointing Mission: Impossible III in 2006), it still might qualify as something of a breakout sequel for the 22-year old franchise. Yes, inflation, exchange rates and overseas market expansion plays as much of a role in the overseas grosses as does inflation in the domestic totals. But we could still end up with an overall total that’s awfully close to the $788m cume (in 2013 and without 3D) of Fast and Furious 6.
The film’s domestic weekend-to-final multiplier will likely end up somewhere between Star Trek Beyond (2.68x) and Rogue Nation (3.5x), which in turn puts the film’s domestic total somewhere between $164 million and $217m. That’s a lot of wiggle room, and a multiplier like Spectre (2.84x), Jason Bourne (2.74x) or even Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2.9x) gives the flick a $165-$180m domestic total. Conversely, a leggy run like Rise of the Planet of the Apes (3.22x) gives the movie a $198m domestic total, with the option for Paramount to Spectre that sucker until it gets past $200m.
Blame MoviePass’s much-publicized problems, which were linked in the press specifically to Mission: Impossible – Fallout. Blame Tom Cruise being less of a draw here than he is overseas (perhaps general audiences aren’t as forgiving of his mid-2000’s off-screen antics as the online film nerd bubble). Blame the franchise becoming (over the opening weekend) a fan-driven series, with general audiences planning to check it out over the next month. Or blame the ever-present “fewer folks go to the movies than they used to” issue. No matter the reason, the sixth installment didn’t break out in North America.
Even with rave reviews, fan goodwill and strong buzz (including an A from Cinemascore), it essentially played (in terms of tickets sold on opening weekend) closer to Mission: Impossible III ($47m Fri-Sun in 2006) than Mission: Impossible ($46m Fri-Sun in 1996) and Mission: Impossible II ($57m Fri-Sun in 2000). But even if Christopher McQuarrie’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout plays closer to Jason Bourne than Rogue Nation, it’s much more of an international juggernaut than the Bourne franchise (and the Star Trek series). As such, we may be looking at a situation closer to Fast and Furious 6 and Fate of the Furious (relatively speaking).